Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Fast forward: Saudi King's death rumors & succession scramble

Washington wants MOI  Mohamed bin Nayef 
[Stratfor] "... Abdullah, 88, reportedly has been placed on life support after having undergone spinal surgery the week of Nov. 18. His death could mark the end of the second generation of princes.
 Crown Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz will succeed Abdullah, but the key issue is who will replace Salman as crown prince. 
The odds are now high that Salman's successor will come from the third generation of princes. .......  there are only a few second-generation princes alive who have the qualifications to become crown prince : Former intelligence chief Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz appears to be a suitable candidate....However, the fact that his mother is Yemeni renders his appointment questionable.
Another possibility is Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz, ...But Sattam is too uncharismatic and too inexperienced to be heir apparent. ...
 Stratfor sources have reported that someone from the al-Faisal clan could be appointed as crown prince : Among the options are Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal, his brother Prince Turki al-Faisal, who was the kingdom's longest serving intelligence chief, and their half-brother Prince Khalid al-Faisal, the governor of Mecca.
Saud is very ill and is unlikely to be appointed. ... Turki's career ended when he resigned as ambassador to the United Kingdom after a spat with King Abdullah.... Khalid's appointment is far from assured..Also in contention for the post is Prince Mitab bin Abdullah, one of King Abdullah's sons, who heads the Saudi Arabian National Guard...But one likely trend is emerging amid all the uncertainty : The next crown prince could very well come from the third generation,...."

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

If the Saudi royal family stays true to form, they will go with second generation princes until they die out, look for a situation similar to King Khalid where the king is not the prime minister. Instead, he will rule in name and the third generation will manage in the background. They will have to figure out how to manage to pass it on. This assumes the Saudi state can continue to suppress popular anger and reign in the corruption and abuse. Big if!